The Climate Change Debate in the Climate Scientist Community

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With hurricanes, tornadoes and other forms of extreme weather occurring more and more frequently, most people are convinced that climate change is happening all around us, still some people, include some climate scientists, remain unconvinced that the cause of all these climate changes is us.A recent paper by Anderegg, et al. published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has analyzed publications by 1372 climate researchers and came to the conclusion that most of the prominent climate scientists agree that human activities were the causes of climate changes we experience today (anthropogenic climate change, or ACC).

In the study, Dr. Anderegg, et al. ranked the climate scientists by number of publications, then divided these scientists into two groups, those who are convinced by the evidence of ACC (CE) and those who are unconvinced by the evidence of ACC (UE). The CE group was determined by combining the list of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contributors and signatories of 4 prominent scientific statements endorsing the IPCC. The UE researchers were signatories of statements that strongly dissents from the views of IPCC.

Dr. Anderegg, et al. found that 49 out of 50 (98%) top climate scientists belonged to the CE group. The number remains consistent for the top 100 (97 belonged to CE group, or 97%) and top 200 (195 belonged to CE group, or 97.5%). When comparing the CE group against the UE group, the differential credentials of the researchers belonging to each group is obvious. While 90% of the CE group has over 20 climate publications, only 20% of the UE group has over 20 climate publications. On average, a CE climate scientist has published 119 papers, as opposed to an average of 60 papers published by UE climate scientists.

Dr. Anderegg himself stated that “scientific confidence is earned by the winnowing process of peer review and replication of studies over time. In the meanwhile, given…the state of debate over perception of climate change, we must seek estimates while confidence builds. Based on the arguments presented here, we believe our findings capture the differential climate science credentials of the two groups.” So what? With an overwhelming majority of top climate scientists agreeing with ACC, there is little doubt that we are the cause of the ongoing climate changes and the catastrophes they bring to life on Earth. We also know that whenever a climate denier quotes a scientist, then the scientist is most likely not an authority on the subject matter.

Some people are still confused about whether there is a consensus within the scientific community, therefore, it would be helpful to have more public announcements, founded by NGO's, to inform the public that the consensus is that our day-to-day activities are indeed the cause of much of the climate changes we experience today, and we must push for more actions to be done. Getting people to sign petitions for tougher actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other causes of climate change can also help inform the general public through fliers and helpful volunteers. However, this does not mean that all climate scientists who disagree with ACC in its entirety should be ignored outright. If they can back their opinions up with evidence, then they should not be denied the chance to present their findings to the community.

Citations:
Anderegg WRL, Prall JW, Harold J, Schneider SH. Expert credibility in climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2010;107:12107–12109.

Will Zhu is a student at Rollins School of Public Health. He hopes to visit all 58 National Parks someday.